Titlebook: Rethinking Risk in National Security; Lessons of the Finan Michael J. Mazarr Book 2016 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016

STERN

THROB

Indifferent to Consequences call with Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, captured on the White House recording system, Johnson worried that the Marines would end up “fighting with the Vietcong and really starting a land war.” He summed up the discussion with what must be one of the most tragic remarks ever uttered by an Am

quiet-sleep

The Swans to Worry About Are Graygy—in national security as well as areas like finance—has most to fear from the sudden and the unexpected. A black swan is, at its core, a shock, a surprise. It is an “outlier,” Taleb writes, “as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to

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手勢

What You Don’t Know Can Destroy You: Ignorance and Correlated Riskers were misguided by wishful thinking, overconfidence, groupthink, the skewing effect of personality, and much more. The case studies of these companies have at least one more important thing in common: Senior leadership lost touch with what was going on in one or more of their business units. Seni

FATAL

Risk, Incentives, and Culturens up against a number of powerful realities of human organizations, from personalities to cognitive biases. Behavior is a function of many variables; avoiding risk is one, but there are many others that can be equally powerful. In many ways the essential story of the financial crisis can be boiled

滔滔不絕地說

Outcome Assessment of the Emerging US National Security Strategy strategic approach, which could be called “selective engagement.” It first describes this strategic posture, and then informs its analysis with two previous case studies of similar strategies: the gradual British recognition of a need to wind down their empire, and the Nixon Doctrine. The discussio

過度

exclusice

Managing Uncertaintyne of radical uncertainty. It is an environment with a dozen major potential threats, challenges, opportunities, and demand signals, arrayed in a complicated mosaic without clear implications for the size, structure, or technology of a modern military. It is a context of profound ambiguity whose fut

Comedienne

Book 2016ks the way risk contributes to strategy, with insights relevant to practitioners and scholars in national security as well as business. Over the past few years, the concept of risk has become one of the most commonly discussed issues in national security planning. And yet the experiences of the 2007