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Titlebook: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence; A Guidebook for Scop Bruce Garvey,Adam D. M. Svendsen Book 2024 The Editor(s) (if appl

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發(fā)表于 2025-3-21 17:17:33 | 只看該作者 |倒序?yàn)g覽 |閱讀模式
書(shū)目名稱(chēng)Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence
副標(biāo)題A Guidebook for Scop
編輯Bruce Garvey,Adam D. M. Svendsen
視頻videohttp://file.papertrans.cn/670/669635/669635.mp4
概述Provides balanced, evidence-based insights on disruptive technologies.Contains experimental and hands-on demonstrator mini-case studies.Navigates the evolving landscape of Gen-AI with insights that le
叢書(shū)名稱(chēng)Management for Professionals
圖書(shū)封面Titlebook: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence; A Guidebook for Scop Bruce Garvey,Adam D. M. Svendsen Book 2024 The Editor(s) (if appl
描述.This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenar
出版日期Book 2024
關(guān)鍵詞Uncertainty; Decision making; Foresight; Intelligence analysis; Risk mitigation; Cyber; Generative AI (Gen
版次1
doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0
isbn_softcover978-3-031-66117-4
isbn_ebook978-3-031-66115-0Series ISSN 2192-8096 Series E-ISSN 2192-810X
issn_series 2192-8096
copyrightThe Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl
The information of publication is updating

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發(fā)表于 2025-3-22 00:15:29 | 只看該作者
Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) Scenarios and Solutions to Address Uncertainty for Decision-Aions is majorly reduced making the initial Problem Space much more manageable..Comparison can then be made between the fixed reference point of an ‘a(chǎn)nchor scenario/solution’ and any other scenario/solution options that might be possible, helping identify any ‘outlier’ that otherwise might not have o
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發(fā)表于 2025-3-22 03:47:11 | 只看該作者
A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study Using Intelligence Engineering and Strategic Options Analysis Methweak signal options, majorly different from the ‘a(chǎn)nchor’ can be identified giving the analyst a broader range of possible outcomes—such outcomes having both ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ connotations..Once these viable solutions from a much larger Problem to Solution Space have been compiled, then the t
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Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios?en compared to the value that could be elicited by using them..When not actually denied, reference points soon become more lost in overall background ‘noise’ than realised as extractable ‘signals’. Once more, the findings here remind that properly verified ‘real’ and ‘human’ intelligence has greates
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Book 2024d, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenar
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