Titlebook: In Extremis; Disruptive Events an Jürgen Kropp,Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber Book 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011 Bootstrapping.Cor

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About Trend Detection in River Floodsn is given. Changes in various characteristics of high flows are investigated using a variety of approaches. Although many cases of statistically significant changes are found, they go in different directions and are of different character in different regions. There does not seem to be a clear, uni

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Extreme Value Analysis Considering Trends: Application to Discharge Data of the Danube River Basinis, e.g., useful to assess the anticipated intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change. The costs related to more frequent or more severe floods are enormous. Therefore, an adequate estimation of these hazards and the related uncertainties is of major concern. Exceedances over a

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Extreme Value and Trend Analysis Based on Statistical Modelling of Precipitation Time Seriesrealization of a Gumbel-distributed random variable with time-dependent location parameter and time-dependent scale parameter. The achieved complete analytical description of the series, that is, the probability density function (PDF) for every time step of the observation period, allows probability

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Detrended Fluctuation Studies of Long-Term Persistence and Multifractality of Precipitation and Rive from 42 hydrological stations and 99 meteorological stations around the globe. To determine the scaling behaviour in the presence of trends , we applied detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and multifractal DFA . We found that the daily runoffs are characterised by a power-law decay of the autocorr

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Long-Term Structures in Southern German Runoff Data A better understanding of this runoff behaviour on regional scales is crucial for a variety of water management purposes and flood risk assessments. We aimed at extracting long-term components which influence simultaneously a set of southern German runoff records.

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Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Recordsonding harmonics affect the nonlinear properties of the relevant time series (i.e. the long-term volatility correlations and the width of themultifractal spectrum) and thus have to be filtered out before studying fractal and volatility properties. We compare several filtering techniques and find tha

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