Titlebook: How Long Do We Live?; Demographic Models a Elisabetta Barbi,James W. Vaupel,John Bongaarts Book 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008

人類

Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisaled that, currently, there is no clear evidence about the existence of such effects in actual populations. This chapter concludes that, until the existence of these effects can be demonstrated, it is preferable to continue using the conventional life expectancy as an indicator of current mortality conditions.

DEFT

Mortality tempo versus removal of causes of mortality: Opposite views leading to different estimatioore general process, we demonstrate that these two particular cases are the only ones that have general properties: The only model enjoying a decomposable expression is the removal model and the only model enjoying the proportionality property is the fixed delay model.

瘋狂

傻瓜

Five period measures of longevitytially from the conventional period life expectancy when mortality changes over time. These findings are consistent with theoretical analysis by Bongaarts and Feeney (2002, in this volume p. 11 and p. 29) which demonstrated that this deviation is caused by a tempo effect whose size varies with the rate of change in mortality.

MAZE

Afterthoughts on the mortality tempo effectpo adjusted life expectancy a current measure of mortality conditions as we (and Vaupel in this volume p. 93 and Guillot in this volume) believe or a measure of the past as suggested by Rodriguez (in this volume) and Wachter (in this volume)?

LINE

Nerve-Block

Tempo effect on age-specific death ratesIt is widely known that shifts of cohort fertility schedule can produce misleading trends in period TFR. This note shows that such a “tempo bias” can occur in age-specific mortality as well: if the age distribution of cohort deaths shifts toward older (younger) ages, the period age-specific death rate is biased downward (upward).

創(chuàng)造性

Turbulence in lifetables: Demonstration by four simple examplesTo understand why mortality change can distort calculations of death rates and life expectancy, it is informative to consider some examples that are as simple as possible. This short chapter presents four such illustrations. They show how lifesaving can roil lifetable statistics.

滔滔不絕的人

凝乳