Titlebook: Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications; Imad A. Moosa Book 2000 Imad A. Moosa 2000 business.exchange rates.time series

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infantile

Exchange Rate Forecasting as an Input in the Decision-making Process,ord of exchange rate forecasters has not been so spectacular and perhaps even appalling. Why then do we need and want formal exchange rate forecasting? Why do we not just toss a coin and save the money and time spent on generating forecasts? The answer is simple: whether we like it or not decision m

BILL

Univariate Time Series Techniques, forecast, which in this case is the exchange rate. The term ‘univariate’ implies that forecasting is based on a sample of time series observations of the exchange rate without taking into account the effect of the other variables such as prices and interest rates. The underlying rationale for this

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Narcissist

Market-based Forecasting: The Spot and Forward Exchange Rates,ure point in time. This is called market-based forecasting because the forecasters (the spot and forward rates) are provided by the spot and forward foreign exchange markets. Market-based forecasting rests on two hypotheses: the random walk hypothesis and the unbiased efficiency hypothesis. The rand

lipids

Judgemental and Composite Forecasting,implies that the forecaster’s judgement is not involved in generating forecasts. This is not the case, however. On the contrary, sound judgement is an essential component of good forecasting techniques. Moreover, the assumption so far is that forecasts are derived from a single method or model. For

lipids

Technical Analysis,led technicians or chartists) record, normally in chart form, historical exchange rates and try to deduce from the pictured history the probable future trend. The basic idea is that exchange rates as observed in the foreign exchange market are determined by supply and demand, and this is all that is

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CLAM

Recent Developments: Chaos and Neural Networks,t originated in the biological and physical sciences and then were imported to economics and finance. These two topics are dealt with in one chapter not because they are inherently related, but because they are new developments that have some implications for exchange rate forecasting. Indeed, the t

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