Titlebook: Economic Forecasting; Nicolas Carnot,Vincent Koen,Bruno Tissot Book 2005 Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot 2005 business.busin

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The Data,sters around the world use a common language and refer to the same key macroeconomic variables. However, there are differences across time and space regarding the specific empirical content of some of the concepts used. For most practical purposes, at least in forecasting, these differences are rela

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Incoming News and Near-Term Forecasting,t is heading (Section 3.1). The starting point is therefore the collection of a great variety of economic information with a view to assessing the state of the economy before national accounts data become available, weeks or months down the road (Section 3.2). In this regard, survey data can provide

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Modelling Behaviour,nt (fixed and stockbuilding), which plays a prominent role as a driver of economic fluctuations. Section 5.2 proceeds with household spending (consumption and residential investment). Section 5.3 discusses imports, exports, world demand and competitiveness. Section 5.4 covers employment and Section

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Medium- and Long-Run Projections,against the background of the ongoing rebalancing of the global economy towards some large emerging economies, especially in Asia. Medium- and long-run projections differ from the short-run forecasts discussed in previous chapters. Beyond the next few quarters, it is indeed pointless to try and fore

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Financial and Commodity Markets,arket participants’ expectations. A great variety of tools are used to analyse and forecast them, ranging from traditional models of interest rate determination to ‘heterodox’ methods such as chartism, to country-risk analysis.

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