Titlebook: Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises; Applications to East Asian Development Bank Book 2005 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmill

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Predicting Financial Crises: An Overview,ses in emerging economies. Investing in the development of an early warning model is important for two reasons. First, banking and currency crises are extremely costly to the countries in which they originate—as well as to other countries that are affected by the spillover of the original crisis.

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Nonparametric EWS Models of Currency and Banking Crises for East Asia,g approach pioneered by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). They are estimated using monthly data of six East Asian countries—Indonesia, Republic of Korea (Korea), Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and, therefore, may be considered “regional models.” In contrast, empirical EWS models reported

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A Parametric EWS Model of Currency Crises for East Asia, which usually take either a probit or logit approach. Earlier studies on parametric EWS models were mostly based on annual data (see, for example, Frankel and Rose 1996). Such models could be useful in identifying causes of financial crises, but may not be suitable for real-time forecasting of cris

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Book 2005search is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.

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further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.978-0-230-50106-5

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https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230501065ASEAN; Asia; development; East Asia

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