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Titlebook: Developments in Demographic Forecasting; Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 20

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發(fā)表于 2025-3-21 16:24:50 | 只看該作者 |倒序瀏覽 |閱讀模式
書目名稱Developments in Demographic Forecasting
編輯Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
視頻videohttp://file.papertrans.cn/271/270180/270180.mp4
概述This open access book covers forecasting models for mortality, fertility, and migration.Provides new methods of population forecasting.Data and codes available for selected chapters
叢書名稱The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis
圖書封面Titlebook: Developments in Demographic Forecasting;  Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 20
描述.This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for?forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters..
出版日期Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020
關鍵詞Population forecasting; Fertility; Mortality; Migration; Forecasting evaluation; Social Media data; Popula
版次1
doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5
isbn_softcover978-3-030-42474-9
isbn_ebook978-3-030-42472-5Series ISSN 1877-2560 Series E-ISSN 2215-1990
issn_series 1877-2560
copyrightThe Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2020
The information of publication is updating

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Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and Agingn there is either a lack of good data, insufficient knowledge about underlying causal mechanisms, or apparent randomness in trends. In this paper, we describe the expert elicitation protocol developed by Statistics Canada in 2018 to inform the development of projection assumptions. The protocol may
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Diabetes Mellitus Prevention and Treatmentce and pension providers. Several innovative stochastic methodologies have been proposed in most recent decades, the majority of them being based on age-specific mortality rates or on summary measures of the life table. The age-at-death distribution is an informative life-table function that provide
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Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and StrokeMost of these forecasting models are based on the extrapolation of past trends, often assuming linear (or log-linear) development of mortality indicators, such as death rates or life expectancy. However, this assumption can be problematic in countries where mortality development has not been linear,
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Emerging Issues in the Care of the Elderlyic trends indicate that an update is necessary. When the forecaster strongly revises, from one forecast round to the next one, a forecast for a certain target year (for instance the life expectancy in 2050), this indicates large uncertainty connected to mortality predictions. The aim of this chapter
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David E. Hartman,Benjamin Kleinmuntz of interstate migration in Australia. For our illustration, we decompose 5-year census migration flow tables by state or territory of origin, state or territory of destination, 5-year age group and sex for seven census time periods from 1981–1986 to 2011–2016. The components are described over time
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