Titlebook: Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus; Testing the Effectiv John J. Heim Book 2017 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017 statistical

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Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (One-Variable Deficit),consumption as well as a stimulus effect. The models included 21 OLS and 26 2SLS models, and 48 tests of the robustness of those results by testing to see if results could be replicated in three different, but overlapping time periods. Results overwhelmingly indicated crowd out adversely affected co

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Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (One-Variable Deficit),consumption as well as a stimulus effect. The models included 21 OLS and 26 2SLS models, and 48 tests of the robustness of those results by testing to see if results could be replicated in three different but overlapping time periods. Results overwhelmingly indicated crowd out adversely affected con

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Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (Two-Variable Deficit),ion as well as a stimulus effect. The models included six consumer spending and 11 consumer borrowing; five were OLS, 12 were 2SLS. Results overwhelmingly indicated crowd out adversely affected consumption spending. The two separate variable (Revenue, Spending) definition of the deficit was used, so

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Effects of Stimulus Programs on GDP, Net of Crowd Out Effects,mulus programs are enacted, from $0.47–$0.89 per dollar of tax cut-induced deficit, to between $0.35–$0.57 per dollar of spending increase-induced deficit. The effect of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Obama stimulus program) is calculated. It was estimated to have negatively aff

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Alternatives to Financing Stimulus Programs with Domestic Borrowing,nd that changing the M1 money supply alleviated crowd out. The chapter offers the hypothesis (untested) it may be because the Federal Reserve’s principal method of increasing the M1 money supply mechanically funnels the money principally to investors selling securities so as to be able to buy other

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Do Crowd Out Effects Differ in Recession and Non-recession Periods?,-recession periods. The 13 tests conducted in this chapter indicate they are not despite the decline in private borrowing in recessions, which theoretically should allow additional government borrowing without reducing what is available to meet now—lower private borrowing needs. But empirically, the