| 期刊全稱 | Apocalypse When? | | 期刊簡(jiǎn)稱 | Calculating How Long | | 影響因子2023 | Willard Wells | | 視頻video | http://file.papertrans.cn/159/158975/158975.mp4 | | 發(fā)行地址 | Provides a unique analysis of the chances of human survivability in the short and long term.Develops a formula for survival based on four separate measures.Gives the numerical estimates of human survi | | 學(xué)科分類 | Springer Praxis Books | | 圖書(shū)封面 |  | | 影響因子 | .This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author’s predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells’ carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics...Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory...The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his princip | | Pindex | Book 2009 |
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