標(biāo)題: Titlebook: Rethinking Risk in National Security; Lessons of the Finan Michael J. Mazarr Book 2016 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 [打印本頁] 作者: Autonomous 時間: 2025-3-21 16:47
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作者: Bumptious 時間: 2025-3-21 20:30 作者: 施魔法 時間: 2025-3-22 01:13 作者: Dedication 時間: 2025-3-22 06:30
Risk Is What We Make of ItAs the financial crisis grew and matured into 2008, markets became highly volatile, ready to jump at the slightest indication of trouble. Traders began reacting, not to the reality of a firm’s economic situation, but to rumors and skewed perceptions of it. In March of that year, Bear Sterns felt the wrath of this accumulating wave of perceptions.作者: 減震 時間: 2025-3-22 10:25 作者: institute 時間: 2025-3-22 16:27 作者: 不要嚴(yán)酷 時間: 2025-3-22 18:37
http://image.papertrans.cn/r/image/829123.jpg作者: Conducive 時間: 2025-3-23 01:02
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-91843-0risk; financial crisis; security; defense; strategy; finance; cognitive bias; behavioral economics; uncertai作者: 紋章 時間: 2025-3-23 02:24 作者: promote 時間: 2025-3-23 06:17 作者: STERN 時間: 2025-3-23 09:48 作者: THROB 時間: 2025-3-23 16:34
Indifferent to Consequences call with Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, captured on the White House recording system, Johnson worried that the Marines would end up “fighting with the Vietcong and really starting a land war.” He summed up the discussion with what must be one of the most tragic remarks ever uttered by an Am作者: quiet-sleep 時間: 2025-3-23 18:27
The Swans to Worry About Are Graygy—in national security as well as areas like finance—has most to fear from the sudden and the unexpected. A black swan is, at its core, a shock, a surprise. It is an “outlier,” Taleb writes, “as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to作者: burnish 時間: 2025-3-24 01:42 作者: 手勢 時間: 2025-3-24 06:16
What You Don’t Know Can Destroy You: Ignorance and Correlated Riskers were misguided by wishful thinking, overconfidence, groupthink, the skewing effect of personality, and much more. The case studies of these companies have at least one more important thing in common: Senior leadership lost touch with what was going on in one or more of their business units. Seni作者: FATAL 時間: 2025-3-24 07:58
Risk, Incentives, and Culturens up against a number of powerful realities of human organizations, from personalities to cognitive biases. Behavior is a function of many variables; avoiding risk is one, but there are many others that can be equally powerful. In many ways the essential story of the financial crisis can be boiled 作者: 滔滔不絕地說 時間: 2025-3-24 14:41
Outcome Assessment of the Emerging US National Security Strategy strategic approach, which could be called “selective engagement.” It first describes this strategic posture, and then informs its analysis with two previous case studies of similar strategies: the gradual British recognition of a need to wind down their empire, and the Nixon Doctrine. The discussio作者: 過度 時間: 2025-3-24 18:53 作者: exclusice 時間: 2025-3-24 19:33
Managing Uncertaintyne of radical uncertainty. It is an environment with a dozen major potential threats, challenges, opportunities, and demand signals, arrayed in a complicated mosaic without clear implications for the size, structure, or technology of a modern military. It is a context of profound ambiguity whose fut作者: Comedienne 時間: 2025-3-25 01:36
Book 2016ks the way risk contributes to strategy, with insights relevant to practitioners and scholars in national security as well as business. Over the past few years, the concept of risk has become one of the most commonly discussed issues in national security planning. And yet the experiences of the 2007作者: Rotator-Cuff 時間: 2025-3-25 07:17
Book 2016d not cure skewed incentives, cognitive biases, groupthink, and a dozen other human factors that led companies to take excessive risk. By embracing risk management, the national security enterprise may be turning to a discipline just as it has been discredited.作者: vector 時間: 2025-3-25 09:06 作者: 預(yù)定 時間: 2025-3-25 12:07
Defining Risk). The federal statute mandating the QDR states that it must be conducted “in consultation with” the Chairman, and requires that the Chairman’s office produce a formal assessment. Over time, the Chairman’s comment has come to focus on the risks embodied in and taken by the defense strategy laid out in the QDR.作者: Constitution 時間: 2025-3-25 17:55 作者: Forehead-Lift 時間: 2025-3-25 20:26 作者: Initial 時間: 2025-3-26 03:14 作者: Exuberance 時間: 2025-3-26 06:11
Principles of Effective Risk Managementmany of the most common cognitive and framing errors push decision-makers toward urgent, nonconsequentialist thinking. Developing a single coherent approach to risk, and focusing risk analysis on outcomes, are the first steps toward the effective employment of risk as a component of a larger strategy process.作者: accrete 時間: 2025-3-26 11:10
Managing Uncertaintylicated mosaic without clear implications for the size, structure, or technology of a modern military. It is a context of profound ambiguity whose future is less predictable than ever, in which events across the world are connected in denser and more explosive ways.作者: 方便 時間: 2025-3-26 14:10 作者: 無禮回復(fù) 時間: 2025-3-26 19:54
The Swans to Worry About Are Gray its possibility.”. He goes on to claim that such events are the engines of history. “A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world,” he argues. Social life “is the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks.”作者: FOVEA 時間: 2025-3-26 22:19
Risk Becomes Personalized grew along with the profits. He sent a 1986 memo to the board in which he argued that highly trained “professionals” were using “sophisticated tools” to “generate substantial earnings with virtually no fixed investment and relatively low risk.”作者: FRAX-tool 時間: 2025-3-27 01:38 作者: Perineum 時間: 2025-3-27 09:13 作者: CLEFT 時間: 2025-3-27 10:54
s and suggested reading. It is useful to students and course instructors in the field of human genetics, developmental biology, life sciences, and biotechnology. It is also meant for researchers who wi978-981-16-7043-5978-981-16-7041-1作者: Ingrained 時間: 2025-3-27 17:02 作者: 真實的你 時間: 2025-3-27 19:40
g crosses where breeders hope to find hybrids that are superior to those already available (a strategy that has made only slow progress in the last decade or two) to develop and improve inbred progenitors that can produce more reliably better hybrids. The use of inbred progenitors and implementation作者: 洞穴 時間: 2025-3-28 01:07 作者: 連累 時間: 2025-3-28 02:12 作者: 獸皮 時間: 2025-3-28 06:21 作者: Adherent 時間: 2025-3-28 10:41 作者: neutrophils 時間: 2025-3-28 14:44
Michael J. Mazarr and growth of their bacterial hosts. Some plasmids are involved in the mating process between bacteria (provide a channel for the exchange of genetic material during mating, which will be discussed in the next section). Some plasmid leads to an important role in the generation of antibiotic resista作者: 多產(chǎn)子 時間: 2025-3-28 21:24
Michael J. Mazarr and growth of their bacterial hosts. Some plasmids are involved in the mating process between bacteria (provide a channel for the exchange of genetic material during mating, which will be discussed in the next section). Some plasmid leads to an important role in the generation of antibiotic resista作者: 鍵琴 時間: 2025-3-28 23:40 作者: Hdl348 時間: 2025-3-29 06:14
Michael J. Mazarr cell wall components has been focused on (1,3;1,4)-.-D-glucans, the walls contain other components that have similar chemical and physicochemical properties and which merit further attention in the context of malting quality of barley. Here, we will examine the properties and roles of all component作者: CURB 時間: 2025-3-29 09:17
Michael J. Mazarr.S. involvement overseas, while others felt that the United States needed to remain involved in international affairs to protect human rights and to help shape the post-Cold War world. The political alignments on this issue often did not correspond to a party affiliation or ideology.作者: curettage 時間: 2025-3-29 14:46
Michael J. Mazarr.S. involvement overseas, while others felt that the United States needed to remain involved in international affairs to protect human rights and to help shape the post-Cold War world. The political alignments on this issue often did not correspond to a party affiliation or ideology.作者: 羽飾 時間: 2025-3-29 17:21
ons seems overburdened. During the fall of 2000, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan held the Millennium Summit to breathe new life into the organization. Secretary-General Annan sought to make world leaders renew their commitment to the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It was t作者: 存在主義 時間: 2025-3-29 20:54
Michael J. Mazarr.S. involvement overseas, while others felt that the United States needed to remain involved in international affairs to protect human rights and to help shape the post-Cold War world. The political alignments on this issue often did not correspond to a party affiliation or ideology.作者: maroon 時間: 2025-3-30 03:24 作者: FISC 時間: 2025-3-30 04:02
Michael J. Mazarrons seems overburdened. During the fall of 2000, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan held the Millennium Summit to breathe new life into the organization. Secretary-General Annan sought to make world leaders renew their commitment to the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It was t作者: enmesh 時間: 2025-3-30 11:11
Michael J. Mazarrson with other fungi. In addition, we highlight key experimental tools that have made Fo an excellent “soilborne fungal disease” model. Rapidly increasing availability of genome sequences from many Fo strains presents unprecedented opportunities for systematic analysis of the evolution, ecology, and作者: 藥物 時間: 2025-3-30 14:29
e polymorphism (SNP) markers. Although application of these tools is just beginning, they have already improved our understanding of genetics, genomics, genome stability, functional genomics, and the roles of secreted effector proteins that may underpin . virulence and epidemics. Here we highlight r作者: ARY 時間: 2025-3-30 20:29
duced vegetatively. Several programs have used the same breeding scheme for the last 40?years. Significant progress has been made, particularly with the first improved varieties released in the 1980s and 1990s. However, gains slowed down since then. Biotechnology tools, after more than two decades, 作者: Blasphemy 時間: 2025-3-30 21:09 作者: 使高興 時間: 2025-3-31 04:51
