標(biāo)題: Titlebook: Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting; Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2019 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Au [打印本頁] 作者: 憑票入場(chǎng) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 18:02
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作者: 狂熱語言 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 23:02 作者: 修飾 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 02:33 作者: 冒失 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 08:04
The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Daysnchanged – in developed countries were close to an ultimate limit, then increases in record life expectancy – the average length of life in the best-practice population – should slow as the ceiling is asymptotically approached.作者: Eviction 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 10:23 作者: 才能 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 13:58
Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – An Epidemiologist’s PerspectiveFrom an epidemiologist’s perspective, one way to improve mortality forecasts is to gain insight into the causes and predictors of mortality. If we know the “risk profile” of the current cohorts compared to the previous cohorts, then our forecasts may improve.作者: Acclaim 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 18:01 作者: 易于出錯(cuò) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 22:27 作者: 奇思怪想 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 02:41
The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019作者: 笨拙的我 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 09:05 作者: 存心 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 13:14 作者: 易發(fā)怒 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 16:46 作者: exceptional 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 18:30 作者: rods366 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 01:56 作者: SIT 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 04:47
Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approachopes” out the range of possibilities the future may hold. I first described this SCOPE method at a workshop organized by Juha Alho several years ago in Finland. It is a kind of scenario method – with probabilities attached to scenarios, with scenarios structured conditionally, and with the possibili作者: Notorious 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 07:34 作者: Reservation 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 12:15
Erroneous Population Forecastsower than the year 2000-estimate that the UN expected in 1973. The UN has computed forecasts for the population of the world since the 1950s. Figure 9.1 shows that the calculations made in the 1980s were much closer to the current estimate than those published around 1990. Subsequent forecasts for t作者: 褲子 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 17:45
Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting texts on demographic methods (., Shryock and Siegel 1976), variance in the number of survivors plays no role. Similarly, concepts of estimation, estimation error, and bias are routinely used, but standard error and sampling distribution are not (except in connection with sample surveys). Although s作者: Arthropathy 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 21:58
An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands Netherlands up to 2050. The forecasts are based on assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration. Obviously, the validity of assumptions on changes in the long run is uncertain, even if the assumptions are expected to describe the expected future according to作者: APNEA 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 23:10
Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systemsension funds. The method of mortality analysis was developed by Lee and Carter (1992), henceforth called the LC method. Lee and Tuljapurkar (1994) combined the LC method with a related fertility forecast to make stochastic population forecasts for the US. Tuljapurkar and Lee (1999) and Lee and Tulja作者: ODIUM 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 05:39
The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Daysnchanged – in developed countries were close to an ultimate limit, then increases in record life expectancy – the average length of life in the best-practice population – should slow as the ceiling is asymptotically approached.作者: Herd-Immunity 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 08:35 作者: 不如屎殼郎 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 12:55
Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Incomrved line is an attempt to define the upper bound, or “best practice”, average life expectancy that could be achieved at any one time. We can think of this as an evolving upper bound to the “technophysio” evolution of the human population, in the sense proposed by Fogel and Costa (1997). The bottom 作者: 模仿 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 17:09
d focused learning into text-based, senses-based, and ration.This guide covers the fundamental technical principles and various business applications of Generative AI for planning, developing, and evaluating AI-driven products. It equips you with the knowledge you need to harness the potential of Ge作者: 教義 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 22:38
Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman,Juha M. Alho,Kaare Christensen,Edward Palmer,James W. Vaupel-driven products. It equips you with the knowledge you need to harness the potential of Generative AI for enhancing business creativity and productivity..The book is organized into three sections: text-based, senses-based, and rationale-based. Each section provides an in-depth exploration of the spe作者: 注意到 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 04:07
derstand the collaborative workflows involved in UX projects.Maximize Figma’s arsenal of tools and plugins within a team-based collaborative environment and accelerate your company’s decision making. This book will show you where Figma fits into the user experience (UX) design process from documenta作者: Adrenaline 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 06:42 作者: Texture 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 09:38
Juha M. Alhoderstand the collaborative workflows involved in UX projects.Maximize Figma’s arsenal of tools and plugins within a team-based collaborative environment and accelerate your company’s decision making. This book will show you where Figma fits into the user experience (UX) design process from documenta作者: innate 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 15:35 作者: 主動(dòng) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 17:07 作者: 構(gòu)想 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 23:44
James W. Vaupely on bricks while bringing your creative dreams to life.Buil.While most see LEGO as a toy, in reality it is much more than just that; it is a way to build a world from the brick up. Although LEGO might have playsets, it is the LEGO enthusiasts that can really make miniature worlds of wonder. This bo作者: 戰(zhàn)勝 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 02:36
Kaare Christensenate the causes of behaviour in individuals and tended to neglect the possibility of locating the psy- chological in the social. In the late 1960s, a reaction to that neglect brought about a "crisis" in social psychology. This "crisis" did not affect all social psychologists; some remained seemingly 作者: theta-waves 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 05:52 作者: 額外的事 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 13:00 作者: pacific 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 17:05
Nico Keilmanate the causes of behaviour in individuals and tended to neglect the possibility of locating the psy- chological in the social. In the late 1960s, a reaction to that neglect brought about a "crisis" in social psychology. This "crisis" did not affect all social psychologists; some remained seemingly 作者: 占線 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 20:59
Juha M. Alhoate the causes of behaviour in individuals and tended to neglect the possibility of locating the psy- chological in the social. In the late 1960s, a reaction to that neglect brought about a "crisis" in social psychology. This "crisis" did not affect all social psychologists; some remained seemingly 作者: 恃強(qiáng)凌弱的人 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 22:17 作者: braggadocio 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 03:46 作者: 用不完 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 09:23
ate the causes of behaviour in individuals and tended to neglect the possibility of locating the psy- chological in the social. In the late 1960s, a reaction to that neglect brought about a "crisis" in social psychology. This "crisis" did not affect all social psychologists; some remained seemingly 作者: phase-2-enzyme 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 13:46
Jim Oeppen,James W. Vaupellocating the psy- chological in the social. In the late 1960s, a reaction to that neglect brought about a "crisis" in social psychology. This "crisis" did not affect all social psychologists; some remained seemingly oblivious to its presence; others dismissed its signifi- cance and continued much as作者: ethereal 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 15:30
Ronald Leeutilities are now exposed more than ever to risk and uncertainties, which they cannot pass on to their customers through price increases as in a regulated environment. Especially electricity-generating companies have to face volatile wholesale prices, fuel price uncertainty, limited long-term hedgin作者: Hemoptysis 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 22:20 作者: 放棄 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 01:09 作者: spondylosis 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 04:31 作者: 同步信息 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 07:33
Tommy Bengtssontic cause-effect positivism of the kind which (arguably) characterised the natural sciences, but social psychology (so it was said) is an historical inquiry, and its conclusions are necessarily historically relative (Gergen, 1973). Ev978-1-4419-3566-3978-0-387-22975-1Series ISSN 1572-1914 Series E-ISSN 1574-9029 作者: 柏樹 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 12:37
tic cause-effect positivism of the kind which (arguably) characterised the natural sciences, but social psychology (so it was said) is an historical inquiry, and its conclusions are necessarily historically relative (Gergen, 1973). Ev978-1-4419-3566-3978-0-387-22975-1Series ISSN 1572-1914 Series E-ISSN 1574-9029 作者: Measured 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 17:45
Nico Keilmantic cause-effect positivism of the kind which (arguably) characterised the natural sciences, but social psychology (so it was said) is an historical inquiry, and its conclusions are necessarily historically relative (Gergen, 1973). Ev978-1-4419-3566-3978-0-387-22975-1Series ISSN 1572-1914 Series E-ISSN 1574-9029 作者: Munificent 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 20:27
Juha M. Alhotic cause-effect positivism of the kind which (arguably) characterised the natural sciences, but social psychology (so it was said) is an historical inquiry, and its conclusions are necessarily historically relative (Gergen, 1973). Ev978-1-4419-3566-3978-0-387-22975-1Series ISSN 1572-1914 Series E-ISSN 1574-9029 作者: 啜泣 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 03:51
Maarten Alders,Joop de Beertic cause-effect positivism of the kind which (arguably) characterised the natural sciences, but social psychology (so it was said) is an historical inquiry, and its conclusions are necessarily historically relative (Gergen, 1973). Ev978-1-4419-3566-3978-0-387-22975-1Series ISSN 1572-1914 Series E-ISSN 1574-9029 作者: Tractable 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 04:34 作者: Tempor 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 12:14 作者: CODE 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 15:08 作者: CLAY 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 19:51
Juha M. Alho diagrams, Personas, and wireframes. From there you will explore other design and interactivity features, and how to prepare a Figma file for handoff to a development team...This book is your roadmap to utilizi979-8-8688-0323-9979-8-8688-0324-6Series ISSN 2945-7793 Series E-ISSN 2945-7807 作者: 貪婪性 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 21:04 作者: faction 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 01:24 作者: 一致性 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 07:41
James W. Vaupelbuilds. .Construct a solid architectural foundation. .Build expediently on a budget...Who This Book Is For..Beginner Lego enthusiasts..979-8-8688-0520-2979-8-8688-0521-9Series ISSN 2948-2542 Series E-ISSN 2948-2550
