標題: Titlebook: Macroeconomic Survey Expectations; Michael P. Clements Book 2019 The Editor(s) and The Author(s) 2019 Time series econometrics.Economic fo [打印本頁] 作者: mortality 時間: 2025-3-21 17:46
書目名稱Macroeconomic Survey Expectations影響因子(影響力)
作者: Organization 時間: 2025-3-21 21:10 作者: BARK 時間: 2025-3-22 04:29 作者: ANN 時間: 2025-3-22 08:15 作者: EXCEL 時間: 2025-3-22 10:26
Working with the Forecast Data,ents’ probability density/distribution function, and the methods include non-parametric techniques, as well as the fitting of parametric distributions, including distributions which allow for asymmetry in the individual’s underlying assessments.作者: MITE 時間: 2025-3-22 14:55
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Surveys Versus Models?,s the forecast horizon shortens. This is suggested by the fixed-event nature of the SPF histograms. The models’ . forecasts of uncertainty are more in line with actual uncertainty as indicated by . RMSEs.作者: remission 時間: 2025-3-22 20:22
Expectations Shocks and the Macroeconomy,ases expectations data can be used to capture ‘a(chǎn)nticipatory effects’ (as in the fiscal foresight literature) and counter the non-fundamentalness problem. Uncertainty can also be used in place of first-moment expectations in VARs to analyse the relationship between uncertainty and the macroeconomy.作者: OWL 時間: 2025-3-22 23:02
Postscript, as well as to evaluate the impact of various policy scenarios. In recent times a key challenge has been understanding the impact of ‘unconventional’ monetary policy. Such policies are intended to ensure more expansionary policy than could be achieved by cuts in base rates when rates are at or close to ‘the lower bound’.作者: 易發(fā)怒 時間: 2025-3-23 01:58
2662-6594 ation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations..978-3-319-97223-7Series ISSN 2662-6594 Series E-ISSN 2662-6608 作者: 合唱團 時間: 2025-3-23 06:04
Assessing the Accuracy of the Probability Distributions,ertainty that characterized output growth and inflation. Rather than evaluating the whole densities, specific regions of interest can be considered, and this is illustrated. Finally, some scoring rules might be better suited than others when, as here, the densities are presented in the form of histograms.作者: 平息 時間: 2025-3-23 12:48 作者: phlegm 時間: 2025-3-23 16:22
Michael P. Clementsrticularly useful in spectroscopy, where they were introduced by Eugene Wigner and Giulio Racah. Racah’s lectures were given at Princeton University in 1951 (Group Theory and Spectroscopy) and they provided the impetus for the initial applications in atomic and nuclear physics. In the intervening ye作者: Senescent 時間: 2025-3-23 20:31 作者: Contracture 時間: 2025-3-23 22:47 作者: Scintigraphy 時間: 2025-3-24 03:04
Michael P. Clements One of the main di?erences between this book and many other books on the subject is that we give complete proofs for the relationships between algebraic groups and Lie algebras, instead of admitting them. We h978-3-642-06333-6978-3-540-27427-8Series ISSN 1439-7382 Series E-ISSN 2196-9922 作者: 反復拉緊 時間: 2025-3-24 07:50 作者: 抵押貸款 時間: 2025-3-24 13:25
Michael P. Clementsclassical Lie algebras..For this new edition, the text has been carefully revised and expanded; in particular, a new chapter978-3-662-44493-1978-3-662-44494-8Series ISSN 0075-8450 Series E-ISSN 1616-6361 作者: 較早 時間: 2025-3-24 17:39
Assessing the Point Predictions,or locally on sub-samples, allowing for instabilities in performance over time. Also considered is the appropriate way of testing for forecast rationality or efficiency in a panel context, where the options include testing the aggregate, pooling the observations over individuals and time periods, or作者: 樂意 時間: 2025-3-24 23:04
Consistency of the Point Forecasts and Probability Distributions,are found. The possible importance of reporting practice—the rounding of probabilities either to convey ambiguity or to simplify communication—is explored in terms of the comparison of the forecast probabilities of decline, and the implied histogram probabilities of this event.作者: 門閂 時間: 2025-3-25 03:13
Behavioural Models of Expectations Formation,te quantities, as are extensions to the basic informational rigidity models, and the evidence is reviewed in this chapter. The modelling of individual forecaster behaviour using a Bayesian learning model is also reviewed, including the possibility that forecasters interpret public information differ作者: ALLAY 時間: 2025-3-25 07:19 作者: 巨頭 時間: 2025-3-25 10:08 作者: Judicious 時間: 2025-3-25 15:04
Assessing the Point Predictions,n desirable characteristics, such as the forecast and forecast error being uncorrelated. There are differences between the evaluation of survey and model forecasts. An obvious one is that survey forecasts cannot be compared to their expected accuracy given the in-sample fit (past track record) of th作者: 一罵死割除 時間: 2025-3-25 16:13 作者: Pigeon 時間: 2025-3-25 22:12
Consistency of the Point Forecasts and Probability Distributions,negative (output will decline) in upcoming quarters. Are these different types of forecasts consistent one with another? For example, can the point forecasts be interpreted as the means of the histograms? Although a histogram does not fully reveal the probability density function, a lower and upper 作者: 伙伴 時間: 2025-3-26 03:15 作者: 完成才會征服 時間: 2025-3-26 08:16 作者: meretricious 時間: 2025-3-26 08:55
Expectations Shocks and the Macroeconomy,ions. Exogenous (or structural) expectations shocks are identified by using one of the identification schemes reviewed in this chapter, which include short-run restrictions, and selecting shocks to maximize the contribution to the forecast-error variance decomposition of certain variables. In some c作者: Maximizer 時間: 2025-3-26 13:22
Postscript,ng that the economy responds only with a lag to policy instruments. The outlook for the economy also affects prospects for firms and consumers and affects their plans and savings and investment behaviour. Many central banks have developed and maintain models designed to forecast future developments,作者: AMPLE 時間: 2025-3-26 20:11 作者: 范圍廣 時間: 2025-3-27 00:30
Michael P. Clementsd geometry. On the other hand, it intervenes in other areas of science, in particularindi?erentbranchesofphysicsandchemistry.Itisanactivedomain of current research. Oneofthedi?cultiesthatgraduatestudentsormathematiciansinterested in the theory come across, is the fact that the theory has very much a作者: cathartic 時間: 2025-3-27 04:01
Michael P. Clementss to make the book as self-contained as possible.Includes alThe theory of groups and Lie algebras is interesting for many reasons. In the mathematical viewpoint, it employs at the same time algebra, analysis and geometry. On the other hand, it intervenes in other areas of science, in particularindi?作者: Bravura 時間: 2025-3-27 05:46 作者: 放牧 時間: 2025-3-27 10:47
Michael P. Clementsprovides an introduction to Lie algebras and some of their applications to the spectroscopy of molecules, atoms, nuclei and hadrons. In the first part, it concisely presents the basic concepts of Lie algebras, their representations and their invariants. The second part includes a description of how 作者: faculty 時間: 2025-3-27 14:13
Michael P. Clements quantal systems. The framework of Lie algebras, initially introduced by - phus Lie in the last part of the 19th century, has been considerably expanded to include graded Lie algebras, in?nite-dimensional Lie algebras, and other algebraic constructions. Algebras that were originally introduced to de作者: GLOOM 時間: 2025-3-27 19:48 作者: 大雨 時間: 2025-3-28 01:24 作者: Talkative 時間: 2025-3-28 03:25
The Editor(s) and The Author(s) 2019作者: 易改變 時間: 2025-3-28 07:33 作者: omnibus 時間: 2025-3-28 10:52
Michael P. ClementsProvides a long overdue treatment of survey expectations, which are not covered in works on time-series econometrics and forecasting.Considers the particular challenges to, and potential rewards from,作者: Amplify 時間: 2025-3-28 17:33
