標(biāo)題: Titlebook: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis; Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Simon French Book 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 [打印本頁(yè)] 作者: 凝固 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 18:21
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作者: ACE-inhibitor 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 21:32
Recent Advances in the Elicitation of?Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabia subjective prior distribution in a Bayesian analysis, for a set of probabilities which are constrained to sum to one. A typical context for this is as a prior distribution for the probabilities in a multinomial model. The Dirichlet distribution has long been advocated as a natural way to represent作者: 富足女人 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 00:49
Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesisces, combining various expert opinions is an important topic. In the Classical Model, uncertainty distributions for the variables of interest are based on an aggregation of elicited expert percentiles. Aggregation of these expert distributions is accomplished using linear opinion pooling relying on 作者: 首創(chuàng)精神 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 05:46 作者: Locale 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 12:07 作者: jealousy 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 14:57
Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization in a Bayesian Contextost likely estimate in between these quantile estimates are to be elicited, which uniquely determine a member in a flexible family of distributions that is consistent with these estimates. Multiple expert elicited lifetime distributions in this manner are next used to arrive at the prior parameters 作者: jealousy 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 20:36
Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modellingast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by dec作者: Ordeal 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 21:13 作者: 盲信者 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 01:42
An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Modelevaluation when aggregating experts’ assessments of uncertain quantities. Assessing experts’ performance in quantifying uncertainty involves two scores in CM, the calibration score (or statistical accuracy) and the information score. The two scores combine into overall scores, which, in turn, yield 作者: 承認(rèn) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 06:50 作者: 發(fā)出眩目光芒 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 11:52 作者: 細(xì)胞膜 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 17:02
Expert Judgement for Geological Hazards in New Zealandrming decision-making. The problems are complex and usually require input from experts from different sub-disciplines. Expert judgement, like all human cognitive processes, is prone to biases. Therefore, we aim to use methods that are robust, transparent, reproducible and help reduce biases. The Cla作者: 無(wú)價(jià)值 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 18:07 作者: Ventricle 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 23:33 作者: incredulity 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 04:29 作者: 反抗者 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 06:44 作者: lactic 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 13:33
Growth, Distribution and Political Changeta is unavailable for certain regions of the probability space. Such methods are now widely developed, well understood, and have been used to model systems in a variety of domains including climate change, food insecurity, and nuclear risk assessment?Barons et?al. (.), Rougier and Crucifix (.), Hane作者: condescend 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 18:26 作者: 抵押貸款 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 20:45 作者: obstruct 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 01:13
The Omega Society: A Dynamic Modelast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by dec作者: 對(duì)手 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 04:06
https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230377783he 1980s. During 1985–1989, a research project funded by the Dutch Government saw the Classical Model developed and embedded in expert judgement procedures along with a Bayesian and a paired comparison method. That project and a subsequent working group report from the European Safety and Reliabilit作者: 群島 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 08:56 作者: 協(xié)奏曲 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 15:31 作者: VEN 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 17:13 作者: FLOAT 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 22:07
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-21813-3rming decision-making. The problems are complex and usually require input from experts from different sub-disciplines. Expert judgement, like all human cognitive processes, is prone to biases. Therefore, we aim to use methods that are robust, transparent, reproducible and help reduce biases. The Cla作者: 形容詞 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 03:09 作者: Gobble 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 05:15
978-3-030-46476-9Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021作者: 前面 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 09:52 作者: nutrition 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 13:43
The Benefits of GDP-Linked Securities,elft in The Netherlands. This chapter presents an interview with Roger Cooke in which he reflects on the Classical Model and the processes of SEJ in conversation with Gabriela F.(Tina) Nane and Anca M. Hanea.作者: arboretum 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 19:42
Building on Foundations: An Interview with Roger Cookeelft in The Netherlands. This chapter presents an interview with Roger Cooke in which he reflects on the Classical Model and the processes of SEJ in conversation with Gabriela F.(Tina) Nane and Anca M. Hanea.作者: Humble 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 23:38 作者: 貴族 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 02:01
Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Simon FrenchContributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model, as well as a section on Training and Education.Based on the COST (European Cooperation in Science & Technology) Action on “Expert Judgement”.Analy作者: trigger 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 08:13
International Series in Operations Research & Management Sciencehttp://image.papertrans.cn/e/image/319147.jpg作者: Manifest 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 09:59
Macro-policy for Sub-Saharan Africa,This is the oration delivered in accepting the position of Professor in Applications of Decision Theory at the Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics at the Delft University of Technology, Delft on November 8, 1995 by Dr. R. M. Cooke (Translated from Dutch by the author).作者: landmark 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 16:14 作者: Analogy 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 17:46 作者: Grievance 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 22:08
Scientific Advice: A Personal Perspective in Dealing with Uncertainty. An Interview with Prof Dame AProf Dame Anne Glover is former Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission and prior to that to the Scottish Government. In this article she discusses uncertainty and scientific advice to policy makers in conversation with Prof Tim Bedford.作者: 躺下殘殺 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 05:07
Book 2021 adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies..The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current over作者: 流出 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 08:08
Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesising within the elicited percentile values and the expected probability based on the percentiles specified in the elicitation. The later gauges an expert’s ability to concentrate high probability mass in small interquartile intervals. Some critics argue that this performance-based model fails to outp作者: arthrodesis 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 13:48
Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization in a Bayesian Contexti.e., survival data up?to the time the component was preventively maintained. Since the Bayesian paradigm is well suited to deal with scarcity of data, the formulated prior . above is updated using all available failure time and right-censored maintenance data in a Bayesian fashion. Multiple posteri作者: 冷淡周邊 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 16:20
Expert Judgement for Geological Hazards in New Zealandation for Standardization. We outline seven recent applications of structured judgement, mostly in seismology and volcanology. Most of them use the Classical Model to aggregate the expert judgement. We discuss challenges and insights, concluding that developing an optimal protocol for expert judgeme作者: 遺傳學(xué) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 21:36 作者: 膝蓋 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 01:10
0884-8289 t includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current over978-3-030-46476-9978-3-030-46474-5Series ISSN 0884-8289 Series E-ISSN 2214-7934 作者: 巡回 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 04:30
Brian Evans,Yves Bernabé,Wenlu Zhuing within the elicited percentile values and the expected probability based on the percentiles specified in the elicitation. The later gauges an expert’s ability to concentrate high probability mass in small interquartile intervals. Some critics argue that this performance-based model fails to outp作者: CANDY 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 08:39
https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137502674i.e., survival data up?to the time the component was preventively maintained. Since the Bayesian paradigm is well suited to deal with scarcity of data, the formulated prior . above is updated using all available failure time and right-censored maintenance data in a Bayesian fashion. Multiple posteri作者: chandel 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 15:08
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-21813-3ation for Standardization. We outline seven recent applications of structured judgement, mostly in seismology and volcanology. Most of them use the Classical Model to aggregate the expert judgement. We discuss challenges and insights, concluding that developing an optimal protocol for expert judgeme作者: 珠寶 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 18:38 作者: constitutional 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 22:42 作者: originality 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 23:59
Whither the Oceans and Salt Seas?,f properly reporting the steps and decision taken during an elicitation, and draw a parallel to the reporting of experimental designs underpinning the data collection. Directions for future research are proposed, and the chapter ends with an outline of the book.作者: TSH582 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 05:10
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71048-6ow SEJ has been applied to answer questions of interest by discussing the process used, strengths identified, and lessons learned from designing a large SEJ study. The focus will be on the undertaken steps that have prepared the expert elicitation.作者: 鐵塔等 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 11:44
Employment, Its Quality and Inequalitytion and recently proposed alternative approaches, which offer greater flexibility at the expense of added complexity. In order of increasing flexibility, they are the generalised Dirichlet distribution, multivariate copulas and vines. An extension of multinomial models containing covariates is discussed.作者: 虛情假意 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 15:52 作者: Absenteeism 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 18:53 作者: overrule 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 23:18 作者: nutrition 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 03:58
Bayesian Modelling of Dependence Between Experts: Some Comparisons with Cooke’s Classical Modelws that these dynamics lead to the Bayesian model exhibiting higher statistical accuracy but lower information scores than the classical model. Comparisons of the combination scoring rule add further evidence to the robustness of the classical approach yet demonstrate outperformance of the Bayesian model in select cases.作者: 消耗 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 06:10 作者: outskirts 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 12:13
