作者: 公豬 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 20:40
Should an Analyst Share Calibration Information with Experts?, managerial judgments in a less complex task, but it does reduce the bias and (especially) noise in a more complex task, (c) Numeracy does not impact the use of calibration information by experts regardless of task complexity, and (d) Individuals are able to directionally discern whether they are do作者: GRAVE 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 03:09 作者: JEER 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 06:04 作者: NOT 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 10:28
Consequences of Missing Objectives in Applications of Multiattribute Utility Analysis,are agreement between models that use the originally identified objectives with models constructed from only a subset of objectives using performance metrics related to the top choice, value loss, and rank ordering of alternatives. Analyses of the MAU applications considered suggest that the consequ作者: refine 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 16:39
Behavioral Challenges in Practice When Dealing with Public Environmental Decision Problems,itation and gamification. For MCDA modeling, we should check that stakeholders agree with model assumptions. To deal with uncertainty in practice, I propose stepwise interactive sensitivity analyses. Throughout, I reference application examples and summarize research opportunities. We need to unders作者: 伴隨而來 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 17:48
Team Decision Making,s that require learning, and in moral dilemmas. In addition, this review discusses the important role of self-selection into teams and its potential consequences. Finally, the survey covers relevant field experiments that complement the literature on decision-making by looking at how team-based ince作者: TAG 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 01:00
Book 2024ed on task focus (prediction or decision) and behavioral level (individual or group). Two theoretical lenses that lie at the interface between (1) normative and descriptive research, and (2) normative and prescriptive research are introduced. The book then proceeds to highlight representative works 作者: 客觀 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 03:16
Alessandro Montanari,Christian Koeberld deviations from rationality, but rather than developing theories of models to explain these deviations, it develops and tests tools or analytical methods to correct such deviations. The distinction between the descriptive and prescriptive perspectives in Behavioral Decision Research has often been作者: Torrid 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 07:07
Impact stratigraphy in the U-M sequence, managerial judgments in a less complex task, but it does reduce the bias and (especially) noise in a more complex task, (c) Numeracy does not impact the use of calibration information by experts regardless of task complexity, and (d) Individuals are able to directionally discern whether they are do作者: Stagger 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 12:22
https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0010313t relatively more overreaction. More recently, Seifert et al. (2023, ., in press) demonstrated that under- and overreaction in decisions when there is an impending regime shift can be accurately described as the result of an interplay between prospect theory and system neglect. Specifically, under- 作者: Infiltrate 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 14:04 作者: artifice 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 20:54 作者: 冰雹 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 01:57 作者: exercise 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 05:56
Julian Grothoff,Tobias Kleinerts that require learning, and in moral dilemmas. In addition, this review discusses the important role of self-selection into teams and its potential consequences. Finally, the survey covers relevant field experiments that complement the literature on decision-making by looking at how team-based ince作者: ASSAY 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 09:06 作者: 儲(chǔ)備 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 13:13
Behavioral Decision Analysis: Past, Present and Future,of structuring problem complexity, modeling uncertainty, generating predictions, eliciting preferences and, ultimately, making better decisions. Two commonly held assumptions are that the decision maker’s cognitive belief system is fully accessible and that this system can be understood and formaliz作者: Rinne-Test 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 14:50 作者: Narcissist 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 21:48 作者: 數(shù)量 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 23:44
Analyzing Decisions Under Uncertainty: Simple Tools of the Heathens,e uncertainty cannot be meaningfully reduced to risk. I synthesize findings and perspectives of behavioural scientists who have ventured outside the lab and into the wild. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer and colleagues’ fast-and-frugal-heuristics program provides transparent and accurate, simple quanti作者: 流利圓滑 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 07:14
Should an Analyst Share Calibration Information with Experts?,able to calibrate the expert’s judgmental errors, and then (ii) obtain judgments for focal quantities (quantities of interest but without historical data), adjust them using the calibration information, and then use the adjusted judgments to assist decision making. In such situations, should a decis作者: Enzyme 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 09:35
The Role of Environmental Instability in Detecting and Responding to Signals of Impending Regime Shn the face of impending change, we are often required to both make accurate predictions about when a regime shift occurs and to change our decisions in response to these shifts. Past research has suggested that people exhibit a systematic bias when it comes to estimating the probability of a regime 作者: Bouquet 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 14:53
The Social Psychology of the Wisdom of Crowds (with a New Section on Recent Advances),her collectives can be wise. The famous Asch (1955) studies left the impression that collective judgment is easily harmed since individuals conform too readily to what others say. Research on the wisdom of crowds, of course, demonstrates the benefits of collective judgment over individual judgment. 作者: 相信 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 19:15
Predicting Behavior in Games: Loss Aversion vs. Rank Dependent Utility vs. Range Utility Theory,n non-strategic settings over the last 40?years. We draw attention to some serious limitations of rank dependence when it comes to game-theoretic settings. First, in strategic settings where the probability of payoffs may be determined by the joint choice of all players, ranking outcomes (in a matri作者: Cholagogue 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 23:05 作者: 自作多情 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 02:36
When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes, to make choices consistent with a constant discount rate. We first present normative models for time preferences, then discuss descriptive results for choices between single outcomes occurring at different times. People often have different implicit discount rates for different types of scenarios, 作者: otic-capsule 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 07:13
The Near-Miss Bias,sign of warning, but may lead to unwarranted increases in risk taking behavior in similar future situations. However, still fairly little is known about the bias and its behavioral underpinnings. What defines a near-miss event and how does it influence risk taking behavior? What triggers the near-mi作者: 精密 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 09:23 作者: Entreaty 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 16:31
Team Decision Making,-maker is usually modeled as an individual, but most organizational and managerial decisions are taken at a team level, e.g. by committees, boards of directors, and work teams. In the past two decades, behavioral and experimental economics made substantial progress in documenting and understanding b作者: –FER 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 17:34 作者: 無目標(biāo) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 22:52 作者: 同步信息 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 02:53
Impact stratigraphy in the U-M sequence,avioral biases. In this paper, we examine the different types of biases that may occur when quantifying uncertainty using a process-oriented framework. In particular, we examine the potential biases in each of the major phases of the uncertainty quantification process. Traditionally, most of the lit作者: 敏捷 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 06:16 作者: 昏睡中 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 10:06 作者: 巧辦法 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 16:36
https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0010313n the face of impending change, we are often required to both make accurate predictions about when a regime shift occurs and to change our decisions in response to these shifts. Past research has suggested that people exhibit a systematic bias when it comes to estimating the probability of a regime 作者: BRIBE 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 18:55 作者: 充滿人 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 23:49 作者: FAR 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 03:55 作者: Detonate 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 07:27 作者: 行乞 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 13:42 作者: 東西 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 15:59
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69367-1fs between achieving environmental and socio-economic objectives is inevitable. I highlight recent research and the many interesting opportunities for behavioral decision analysis, hereby including some literature from other fields. Following a typical Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) process作者: 職業(yè) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 20:01
Julian Grothoff,Tobias Kleinert-maker is usually modeled as an individual, but most organizational and managerial decisions are taken at a team level, e.g. by committees, boards of directors, and work teams. In the past two decades, behavioral and experimental economics made substantial progress in documenting and understanding b作者: 精美食品 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 01:47
Florian M. Federspiel,Gilberto Montibeller,MatthiaFirst research-oriented book that examines the state of the art in behavioral decision analysis.Describes new methods, examples and applications.Examines both choice and prediction problems作者: Pillory 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 04:52
International Series in Operations Research & Management Sciencehttp://image.papertrans.cn/b/image/182816.jpg作者: FEAT 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 09:10
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44424-1Operations Research and Decision Theory; Operations Management; Behavioral Decision Analysis; Prescript作者: conduct 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 12:31
978-3-031-44426-5The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl作者: 隱語 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 16:50
Behavioral Decision Analysis978-3-031-44424-1Series ISSN 0884-8289 Series E-ISSN 2214-7934 作者: arthroplasty 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 22:59
Impact stratigraphy in the U-M sequence, The recognition of biases in these different phases allows practitioners to potentially avoid, minimize, and correct behavioral biases that result in the multiple stages of the uncertainty quantification process.作者: circumvent 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 00:52
Alessandro Montanari,Christian Koeberlnd groups can make truly rational decisions by employing rich, coherent qualitative narratives. I speculate on the way forward for these ideas in decision analysis, and more generally connect to “soft” and “behavioral” operations research.作者: frivolous 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 07:21
Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process, The recognition of biases in these different phases allows practitioners to potentially avoid, minimize, and correct behavioral biases that result in the multiple stages of the uncertainty quantification process.作者: 楓樹 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 09:06 作者: nocturia 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 16:27
0884-8289 ions.Examines both choice and prediction problems.This book lays out a foundation and taxonomy for .Behavioral Decision Analysis., featuring representative work across various domains. Traditional research in the domain of Decision Analysis has focused on the design and application of logically cons作者: SUGAR 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 19:47
Robert Lilljequist,Ulla Preedenut the bias and its behavioral underpinnings. What defines a near-miss event and how does it influence risk taking behavior? What triggers the near-miss bias, and under which conditions does it manifest itself? And what kind of decision support can be provided to counteract the bias?
